Among them are America, China, and Israel... the most affected by the disruption of energy supplies due to the Iran war.

 The repercussions of the Israeli-American-Iranian conflict are rapidly impacting global energy markets, following attacks on vital facilities in the Gulf by drones and missiles. This has caused widespread disruption to oil and gas production and maritime shipping. With the escalating risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, energy flows—the lifeblood of the global economy—are under unprecedented pressure.

In Qatar, Qatar Energy announced the suspension of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and related product production after an attack on its operational facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. Qatar exports approximately 20% of the world's LNG supply, making it the second-largest exporter after the United States. Eighty-two percent of its exports go to Asia, and any prolonged disruption to its production threatens energy security in both East Asia and Europe.

In Saudi Arabia, the Ministry of Defense announced the interception of two drones targeting the Ras Tanura refinery, while Reuters reported that Aramco had shut down the refinery as a precautionary measure. Ras Tanura, with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, is a major refining and export hub on the Gulf coast, and its temporary closure adds pressure to supplies in a market highly sensitive to prices.

In Kuwait, the Kuwait National Petroleum Company and Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company (KIPIC) reported that debris fell on the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery, resulting in two minor injuries. Most oil production in Iraq's Kurdistan region was also suspended, and major Israeli gas fields were shut down, crippling gas exports to Egypt.

Oil prices surged by as much as 13% to surpass $82 a barrel, the highest level since January 2025, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil supply passes, came to a near standstill. Major shipping companies suspended crude and liquefied natural gas shipments after tankers were damaged and marine insurance costs soared.

In these tense circumstances, which countries are most affected by these developments that threaten global energy security?

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain) are at the heart of the crisis, given their economies' reliance on oil and gas exports. Throughout the region's history, hydrocarbon production has constituted nearly half of its GDP and up to 70% of government revenues, according to EFG International.

Egypt

The Suez Canal is a vital artery for global trade, handling approximately 12% of global trade and 30% of container traffic. However, the Central Bank of Egypt announced a 45.5% decline in canal revenues for the 2024/2025 fiscal year, reaching $3.6 billion, compared to $6.6 billion the previous year. This decline is attributed to the disruptions in the Red Sea following Israel's offensive in the Gaza Strip.

Israel

Israel produces gas from the Leviathan, Tamar, and Karish fields. According to the Israeli Ministry of Energy, production reached 27.4 billion cubic meters in 2024. Exports to Egypt and Jordan also increased by 13.4% to reach 13.11 billion cubic meters, compared to 11.56 billion in 2023.

China

China is one of the largest importers of cheap Iranian oil. According to the Financial Review, the escalating attacks threaten crude oil flows to Beijing, putting pressure on its energy security strategy and increasing fuel costs and economic growth.

After Venezuelan oil imports declined due to US sanctions, Chinese refineries turned to cheap Iranian crude. Any further disruption could exacerbate inflation and put pressure on industrial production in the world's second-largest economy.

India

India imports about 85% of its oil needs, equivalent to 4.2 million barrels per day, according to Pankaj Srivastava of Rystad Energy, speaking to CNBC. Even a slight increase in prices significantly raises the import bill.

A scene from the Israeli bombing of the Iranian capital Tehran on Monday (AFP)

Japan, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh

The ongoing crisis and war have severely impacted oil and gas imports for Japan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and other Asian countries that rely on oil and gas from the Gulf region.

Reuters quoted Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara as saying that "some crude oil tankers bound for Japan from the Middle East are waiting in the Arabian Gulf, avoiding passage through the Strait of Hormuz."

Eneos, Japan's largest refiner, said it would assess the impact on its future crude oil purchases while monitoring the situation.

Indonesia's state-owned energy company, Pertamina, announced in a statement that it has prepared measures to mitigate risks and is working to improve refining operations to ensure fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies. Indonesia is the largest gasoline importer in Southeast Asia.

According to Reuters, analysts said the loss of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates would severely impact Asian buyers, particularly Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.

European Countries

The shutdown of Qatar's state-owned LNG production on Monday, following Iranian attacks on its facilities, triggered widespread market turmoil. Qatar is the world's second-largest gas producer after the United States.

United States

Despite being the world's largest oil producer, the United States remains sensitive to rising global prices. A CNN report suggests that a prolonged conflict would drive up gasoline prices and fuel inflation.

Tom Kloza, a consultant at Gulf Oil, said gasoline futures could jump 25 cents immediately, potentially translating to daily increases of 5 to 10 cents. He added, "Before Friday night, I was saying we'd stop at $3.25 a gallon; now it's wide open."

Source: Al Jazeera